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Jul 23, 2014 17:29:04 GMT -5
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Post by LeafsGM on Jul 23, 2014 17:29:04 GMT -5
I feel your frustration but how would adjusting the ratings across the board improve Fleury's rating? What we did for F and D reduced all players' ratings. If we do the same for goalies Fleury would only go down. Anything short of getting the LCHV formulas and adjusting them, or making our own formulas, would accomplish nothing IMO.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2014 17:35:38 GMT -5
Why doesn't someone just run some sort of regression analysis and determine if there is any correlation between certain stats and the rankings? We have to have a stats guru in the group. Just square everything and determine the roots and t-scores? That's all I remember from stats 20 years ago. Eff all y'all.
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Post by AvsGM on Jul 23, 2014 19:43:15 GMT -5
We have been using the same goalie ratings for several seasons now so there really shouldn't be any surprises. As someone mentioned earlier, and confirmed from the LCHV website...
"Like last year, our ratings are calculated mostly with last year statistics, but past seasons are also considered, especially for injured players."
I tried to contact the ratings creator several months ago to get some insight to their ratings but he never even replied. Like I've said over and over, you can't use OV as a comparison, it's all about the core numbers. The ratings are what they are and that's all there is to it really. Jake and I (well Jake really) are working on goalie ratings, so by next season we should have our own set which will be based on the previous season only. For now (as we have for the last few seasons) this is what we're rolling with, for better or for worse.
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Jul 23, 2014 20:07:17 GMT -5
Post by AvsGM on Jul 23, 2014 20:07:17 GMT -5
Also, I'm about to do a huge update to the site and will be uploading the league file. In the lines editor under "Help/Bonus" there is a player comparison tool. If you use that and match up MAF against some of the goalies you mentioned I think you will see it's not really as bad as you think by only basing it on OV.
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Jul 23, 2014 21:33:25 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2014 21:33:25 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure that if you play 10 games and give up 2 goals a game and the other gives up 3 or your offense scores more, you're a better goalie. Brodeur, who is top 3 all time greatest, had a solid defense ahead of him so he didn't face many shots and if he did, they would be high quality chances. What do i mean with this? Sv% is overrated on a poor defensive team because the goalie gets peppered with shots, even from awful angles.
I'm not saying to boost up MAF stats, but to have ALL of the goalies be consistent with some kind of formula, because based on stats alone, MAF is much better than Lehtonen.
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Jul 23, 2014 21:51:51 GMT -5
Post by AvsGM on Jul 23, 2014 21:51:51 GMT -5
...because based on stats alone, MAF is much better than Lehtonen. Is he though? Here are last seasons stats... MAF: 64GP 2.37GAA .915SV% 5SO 3792Mins 1624Saves KL: 65GP 2.41GAA .919SV% 5SO 3804Mins 1735Saves They basically have the same stats. But doing a comparison between their attributes the big descrepancies besides size (6'4"/215 Vs. 6'2"/180) is SK and PH. If you watch a lot of Pens games (which I watch the majority) MAF is downright frightening when he leaves the crease to play the puck. I didn't see many Dallas games last season so I can't comment on Lehtonen, but MAF is brutal. If I adjusted MAF's SK/PH to mirror Lehtonen they would be the same OV.
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Post by Sharky on Jul 24, 2014 8:54:46 GMT -5
OV seems pretty meaningless. There are some pretty average players with 70 OV ratings and it is similar with goalies.
Your most important goalie ratings are SC, HS and RT... Kind of equivalent to SC, PA, and PH for skaters. So keep an eye on those ratings moreso than OV.
I'll be working on goalie ratings next year. I have started them, but there is a ways to go. It is a project since I have to start from scratch. I'm moving this summer to Saskatoon so things are pretty busy for me.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2014 9:25:59 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure that if you play 10 games and give up 2 goals a game and the other gives up 3 or your offense scores more, you're a better goalie. Brodeur, who is top 3 all time greatest, had a solid defense ahead of him so he didn't face many shots and if he did, they would be high quality chances. What do i mean with this? Sv% is overrated on a poor defensive team because the goalie gets peppered with shots, even from awful angles. The pretend scenario was between two goalies each giving up two. Not playing against each other. The number of goals his team's offense scores has zero bearing on how good a goalie is. I don't buy your save percentage theory with Broduer. Why would the chances only be good ones against him because the Devils had a good defense. It's been shown that teams that are winning take fewer shots(once they have the lead) and the losing team is the one peppering the goalie to try to come back.
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Jul 24, 2014 9:36:19 GMT -5
Post by Hawks on Jul 24, 2014 9:36:19 GMT -5
Wins should count for next to zero. We've figured this out in baseball. Not a pitcher or goalie's fault he gives up one or two and his team doesn't score. Goalie should be evaluated on how many pucks he stops, not how many his team scores when he's in net. So if two goalies each play ten games and each give up two goals each game, one goalie is better if his team scores three instead of one? There is no such thing as playing to the score as a goalie or just letting in enough goals to win. I fully agree.
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Jul 24, 2014 10:02:38 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2014 10:02:38 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure that if you play 10 games and give up 2 goals a game and the other gives up 3 or your offense scores more, you're a better goalie. Brodeur, who is top 3 all time greatest, had a solid defense ahead of him so he didn't face many shots and if he did, they would be high quality chances. What do i mean with this? Sv% is overrated on a poor defensive team because the goalie gets peppered with shots, even from awful angles. I'm not saying to boost up MAF stats, but to have ALL of the goalies be consistent with some kind of formula, because based on stats alone, MAF is much better than Lehtonen. Jon already pulled the stats to show that Lehtonen and Fleury are very similar but I am curious what stats you are referring to that show Fleury is better? Wins is a team statistic. Period. You can not base wins and losses on goalie performance. Sure one or two games are lost or won from poor or stellar goaltending but over time the goaltending is just part of the picture. What you are suggesting, "peppered with shots, even from awful angles" is just as subjective as any sort of statistical analysis out there but goalies have one job and that is to stop the puck. Unless of course we are talking about Fleury in the playoffs..... If anything, a poor defensive team would allow better quality chances because they are so bad in their own zone. I watch every single Oilers game and I guarantee that Scrivens saw much higher quality chances behind the shit show Oilers than he did stopping pucks for the Kings. Not getting puck out leads to more turnovers, tired d-zone coverage, bad line changes, icing and bad zone starts. Don't even get me started on face off percentage, which by the way, has a lot to do with the quality of shots but another statistic that is completely out of the goaltenders control.
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Jul 24, 2014 12:47:29 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2014 12:47:29 GMT -5
I've watched tons of Devils and Pens games and what i mean is that since you have a solid defense, teams won't shoot from anywhere. So they look for the perfect play....how many times does that succeed? Not very often, but when it does, it's pretty, thus the low amount of shots. And yes MAF is an adventure sometimes when he leaves the crease, but again, because Lehtonen is taller/heavier, this means he's rated better?
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Jul 24, 2014 13:45:22 GMT -5
Post by AvsGM on Jul 24, 2014 13:45:22 GMT -5
but again, because Lehtonen is taller/heavier, this means he's rated better? No, because MAF's skating and puck handling are far worse his OV is lower.
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